Scientific research

What is the potential of domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak in Wuhan?

HKU School of Public Health researchers published a modelling study in The Lancet which estimated the size of the 2019-nCoV epidemic in Wuhan based on the number of cases exported from Wuhan to cities outside mainland China as of Jan 28, 2020. Wu and colleagues forecasted the extent of the domestic and global public health risks of epidemics and inferred that multiple major cities of China might already be sustaining localised outbreaks, with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks. As major cities of China are well connected to other major cities globally, these cities could also become outbreak epicentres unless substantial public health interventions are implemented; necessitating a need for quick and substantial deployment of preparedness plans and mitigation interventions globally.

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# transmission dynamics


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