Scientific research

Review of early statistical and mathematical modelling studies provide range of estimates for key epidemiologic parameters of COVID-19

HKU SPH researchers together with researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US, the World Health Organization in Geneva, the University of Edinburgh, Northeastern University, and the ISI foundation published a review of studies employing statistical and mathematical modelling that estimated key epidemiologic parameters of COVID-19 before early March. In this review, researchers found that the incubation period (time between infection and symptom onset) was 1.8 – 6.9 days, the serial interval (time between the symptom onsets of the first case and the second case in a transmission chain) was 4.0 – 7.5 days, and the doubling time (time for the number of new cases to double) to be 2.3 to 7.4 days. These parameters are important in the estimation of disease burden and determination of optimal disease control and mitigation strategies.

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DOI: 10.3201/eid2611.201074

# transmission dynamics


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